Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned in late June that the coming weeks and months could bring further instability and rising tensions, following intelligence reports that Russia may be planning a limited physical attack on critical energy or transport infrastructure in Poland or the Baltic states. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda confirmed Wednesday that his intelligence services had detected signals pointing to small-scale kinetic operations, likely aimed at testing NATO unity rather than launching a large invasion. These warnings follow similar recent statements from Polish and Latvian officials, who have linked Moscow to past arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks. The situation matters because such a provocation could undermine the Western military alliance and disrupt support for Ukraine.